The two published ranges
| Source | Range | Average |
|---|---|---|
| Fixr, January 2026 | $12,000 to $32,000 | $17,300 |
| Bob Vila, November 2022 | $2,199 to $21,480 | $12,708 |
$4,592 between the averages, our subtraction, over three years and two months. That is a large gap, but it is not the interesting one. The interesting one is inside the Bob Vila page.
A bottom end that the same page rules out
Bob Vila leads with a typical range starting at $2,199. Further down, it prices the loop, which is the part you are actually buying:
| Loop type | Bob Vila, 2022 | Fixr, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Open loop | $10,000 to $28,000 | $10,000 to $35,000 |
| Pond or lake loop | varies by water source | $10,000 to $45,000 |
| Horizontal loop | $15,000 to $34,000 | $15,000 to $50,000 |
| Vertical loop | $20,000 to $38,000 | $20,000 to $70,000 |
The cheapest installation on Bob Vila's own table starts at $10,000, which is more than four times its published bottom end of $2,199. We cannot make those two statements agree, and the page does not try.
Look at the same table across the two publishers, though, and something useful appears: the starting figures are identical. $10,000, $15,000 and $20,000, three years apart, from two publishers who do not cite each other. They diverge only at the top, where Fixr allows for much more expensive jobs.
Our reading, marked as ours. We would plan from the bottom ends, because that is where two independent sources agree, and treat the top ends as a warning that site conditions can double the bill. On the headline numbers we follow Fixr's $12,000 to $32,000, because it is the range consistent with both publishers' loop tables, and we do not use Bob Vila's $2,199.
This is the same approach we take on our AC repair and whole system pages: where a source contradicts itself, show the contradiction and follow the figure another publisher supports.
The city table we are not using at all
Bob Vila prints installation costs for six cities. We are reproducing it only to explain why we are ignoring it:
| City | Bob Vila's figure |
|---|---|
| Chicago | $2,100 to $25,0000 |
| Minneapolis | $2,700 to $11,000 |
| Dallas | $4,900 to $10,000 |
| Atlanta | $5,100 to $27,700 |
| San Antonio | $14,300 to $18,100 |
| Pittsburgh | $55,600 to $61,000 |
The Chicago figure is printed with five zeros. Minneapolis and Dallas top out below the cheapest loop on the same page. Pittsburgh starts at $55,600, which is above the top of every other row and above the page's own stated maximum of $21,480.
Our note, marked as ours. We do not think these are regional insights; we think the table is unreliable, and a figure that contradicts its own page four paragraphs earlier should not be the basis of anyone's budget. We mention it because you will meet it if you search this topic, and because leaving it out silently would be the less honest choice.
To be fair to both publishers: the Fixr page has its own editing slip, a sentence reading that occasional repairs "average between $400" with nothing after it. Neither page is carefully proofed. That is part of why we check figures against a second source before publishing them.
What it costs by the size of the house
Fixr's table is the clearest thing published on this topic:
| House size, sq ft | Heat pump size, tons | Typical cost |
|---|---|---|
| 1,000 | 1.5 | $3,000 to $12,000 |
| 1,500 | 2 | $5,000 to $20,000 |
| 2,000 | 3 | $7,500 to $28,000 |
| 2,500 | 4 | $10,000 to $36,000 |
| 3,000 | 5 | $12,500 to $50,000 |
Bob Vila prices the same thing per ton: $4,000 to $8,000 per ton, with a 4-ton system reaching $32,000 for a moderate-sized home.
Our arithmetic, marked as ours. Four tons at $4,000 to $8,000 is $16,000 to $32,000. Fixr's 4-ton row is $10,000 to $36,000. The two overlap across most of their length, which is about as much agreement as this topic offers, and both say a typical 2,000 square foot house needs a 3-ton system.
Where the money goes
Fixr: labor accounts for between 50% and 70% of your total.
That is the highest labor share of anything in this section. It is also the reason the loop type matters so much: you are paying for excavation or drilling, not for a box.
The add-ons both guides name:
| Item | Cost | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Ductwork, if the house has none | $1,400 to $6,000 | Fixr |
| Permits | $50 to $2,000 | Fixr |
| Desuperheater tank | $1,400 to $3,000 or more | Bob Vila |
| Home energy audit | $200 to $500 | Bob Vila |
| Home energy audit | $440 average | Fixr |
| Electrician | $50 to $100 per hour | Bob Vila |
The permit band is worth reading twice. $50 to $2,000 is not a detail, and Fixr notes that some areas require separate permits for open-loop systems because of groundwater discharge, which Bob Vila also flags as a source of discharge permit fees.
What it costs to run, and what it saves
Fixr puts running costs at $800 to $1,050 per year, which is $67 to $88 per month, based on consumption of 4,000 to 6,000 kWh a year at 17.47 cents per kWh. Annual inspections are $75 to $250.
On savings, Fixr cites ENERGY STAR: an average of $830 per year against more traditional systems, and, over a life of up to 24 years, "a total savings of close to $20,000."
Our arithmetic, marked as ours, and this is the number that decides it. Take the $17,300 average install. Subtract what a conventional furnace and central AC pairing would have cost, which Fixr's own comparison table puts at $7,800 to $19,500. At the midpoint of that band, roughly $13,650, the extra you are paying for geothermal is about $3,650, and at $830 a year that is paid back in about four and a half years.
But take the same $17,300 against the bottom of that band, $7,800, and the extra is $9,500, which takes about eleven and a half years. And against a ductless mini-split system at Fixr's $2,000 to $9,000, geothermal never pays back on energy alone within the equipment's life.
So the honest answer on payback is: it depends entirely on what you are replacing, and any guide that gives you one payback figure is hiding that. Our heat pump page covers the air-source alternative, which Fixr prices at $5,000 to $15,000 with a similar efficiency story and none of the excavation. Geothermal is the dearest type to repair as well as to install, which our heat pump repair page sets out alongside the figure that matters more, what that repair is as a share of replacing the system. Geothermal is also one of the ways a heated floor gets its hot water, which our radiant floor heating page prices per square foot, and our how a heat pump works page explains where the ground-source types sit among the four.
How it compares, in Fixr's own table
| System | Installation cost | Lifespan |
|---|---|---|
| Ductless mini-splits | $2,000 to $9,000 | 15 to 20 years |
| Air-source heat pump | $5,000 to $15,000 | 10 to 25 years |
| Furnace and central AC | $7,800 to $19,500 | 15 to 25 years |
| Boiler and central AC | $8,000 to $20,500 | 15 to 25 years |
| Geothermal heat pump | $12,000 to $32,000 | 20 to 25 years for the unit, 50+ years for the underground loop |
The loop lifespan is the argument for geothermal that the payback arithmetic above misses. The unit is replaced on a normal schedule; the expensive part in the ground is not.
Before you get quotes
- Find out which loop types your lot allows. Open loop at $10,000 to $35,000 and vertical at $20,000 to $70,000 are different projects, and the ground decides, not you.
- Ask what the quote assumes about ductwork. $1,400 to $6,000 if the house has none.
- Ask about permits early, especially for an open loop with groundwater discharge.
- Price the conventional replacement at the same time. The payback depends on the difference, not on the geothermal price.
- Treat any single payback number with suspicion, including ours. Ask what it is being compared against.
Sources
- Fixr, How Much Does a Geothermal Heat Pump Cost in 2026?, updated January 22, 2026 (the $12,000 to $32,000 range, the $17,300 average, costs by loop type and by house size, labor share, ductwork, permits, running costs, the ENERGY STAR savings figure, the comparison against other systems)
- Bob Vila, How Much Does a Geothermal Heat Pump Cost?, updated November 22, 2022 (the $2,199 to $21,480 range, the $12,708 average, costs by loop type, the per-ton figure, the city table, desuperheater, energy audit and electrician costs)
Price figures are national US ranges from the sources above as of the date shown. Your local price depends on labor rates, permits and site conditions. Read how we get our numbers.